In the land of IT, the one thing you can count on is a slick vendor
presentation and a whole lot of hype. Eras shift, technologies change, but the
sales pitch always sounds eerily familiar.
In virtually every decade there's at least one transformational technology that
promises to revolutionize the enterprise, slash operational costs, reduce
capital expenditures, align your IT initiatives with your core business
practices, boost employee productivity, and leave your breath clean and minty
fresh.
[ InfoWorld reveals tech's 25 biggest flops of all time, plus the dirty vendor
tricks to watch out for. | Snake oil, shenanigans, and snafus -- Robert X.
Cringely's Notes from the Field blog is your guide to the fun and crazy world of
tech. ]
Today, cloud computing, virtualization, and tablet PCs are vying for the hype
crown. At this point it's impossible to tell which claims will bear fruit, and
which will fall to the earth and rot.
Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, however, it's easy to see how we got sucked
into believing claims that simply weren't true -- whether they were about the
promise of artificial intelligence or the practicality of ERP.
Here then are six technologies -- five old, one new -- that have earned the
dubious distinction of being the hype kings of their respective eras. Think
about them the next time a sales team comes knocking on your door.
1. Artificial intelligence
Era: Late 1950s to present
The pitch: "Some day we will build a thinking machine. It will be a truly
intelligent machine. One that can see and hear and speak. A machine that will be
proud of us." -- Thinking Machines Corp., year unknown
Once upon a time, machines were going to do our thinking for us. And then, of
course, they'd grow tired of doing humanity's bidding and exterminate us.
The good news? We haven't been offed by the machines (yet). The bad news is that
artificial intelligence has yet to fully deliver on its promises. Like, for
example, in 1964, when researchers at the newly created Stanford Artificial
Intelligence Lab assured the Pentagon that a truly intelligent machine was only
about a decade away. Guess what? It's still at least 10 years away.
Several times in the decades since, companies have tried to build an industry
around AI computers -- largely supported by government research dollars -- only
to run headfirst into an "AI winter" when the funding dried up.
"The longest failing technology has been AI and expert systems," says John
Newton, CTO of Alfresco, an open source enterprise content management vendor.
Newton began his tech career intent on studying AI, but ended up working with
databases instead. "For 40 years, AI has not delivered."
Or maybe it has, but in subtler ways than the so-called thinking machines first
envisioned when Stanford computer scientist John McCarthy coined the term
"artificial intelligence" in 1956. Technologies that seem mundane to us now
would have looked a lot like artificial intelligence 30 or 40 years ago, notes
Doug Mow, senior VP of marketing at Virtusa, an IT systems consultancy.